Modelling fraud detection by attack trees and Choquet integral

Modelling an attack tree is basically a matter of associating a logical ÒndÓand a logical ÒrÓ but in most of real world applications related to fraud management the Ònd/orÓlogic is not adequate to effectively represent the relationship between a parent node and its children, most of all when information about attributes is associated to the nodes and the main problem to solve is how to promulgate attribute values up the tree through recursive aggregation operations occurring at the Ònd/orÓnodes. OWA-based aggregations have been introduced to generalize ÒndÓand ÒrÓoperators starting from the observation that in between the extremes Òor allÓ(and) and Òor anyÓ(or), terms (quantifiers) like ÒeveralÓ ÒostÓ ÒewÓ ÒomeÓ etc. can be introduced to represent the different weights associated to the nodes in the aggregation. The aggregation process taking place at an OWA node depends on the ordered position of the child nodes but it doesnÕ take care of the possible interactions between the nodes. In this paper, we propose to overcome this drawback introducing the Choquet integral whose distinguished feature is to be able to take into account the interaction between nodes. At first, the attack tree is valuated recursively through a bottom-up algorithm whose complexity is linear versus the number of nodes and exponential for every node. Then, the algorithm is extended assuming that the attribute values in the leaves are unimodal LR fuzzy numbers and the calculation of Choquet integral is carried out using the alpha-cuts.Fraud detection; attack tree; ordered weighted averaging (OWA) operator; Choquet integral; fuzzy numbers.

Inconsistency and non-additive Choquet integration in the Analytic Hierarchy Process

We propose to extend the aggregation scheme of Saaty’s AHP, from the stan- dard weighted averaging to the more general Choquet integration. In our model, a measure of inconsistency between criteria is derived from the main pairwise comparison matrix and it is used to construct a non-additive capacity, whose associated Choquet integral reduces to the standard weighted mean in the con- sistency case. In the general inconsistency case, however, the new aggregation scheme based on Choquet integration tends to attenuate (resp. emphasize) the priority values of the criteria with higher (resp. lower) average inconsistency with the remaining criteria.Aggregation Functions, Multiple Criteria Analysis, AHP, Inconsintency, non-additive measures, Choquet integral, and Shapley values.

MISURE DI CHOQUET, INDICI DI SHAPLEY E IL PROBLEMA DELL'ESTENSIONE DI UN OPERATORE DI MEDIA PESATA AD UN INTEGRALE DI CHOQUET

2002/2003XV Ciclo1969Versione digitalizzata della tesi di dottorato cartacea

An analysis and evaluation of the WeFold collaborative for protein structure prediction and its pipelines in CASP11 and CASP12

Every two years groups worldwide participate in the Critical Assessment of Protein Structure Prediction (CASP) experiment to blindly test the strengths and weaknesses of their computational methods. CASP has significantly advanced the field but many hurdles still remain, which may require new ideas and collaborations. In 2012 a web-based effort called WeFold, was initiated to promote collaboration within the CASP community and attract researchers from other fields to contribute new ideas to CASP. Members of the WeFold coopetition (cooperation and competition) participated in CASP as individual teams, but also shared components of their methods to create hybrid pipelines and actively contributed to this effort. We assert that the scale and diversity of integrative prediction pipelines could not have been achieved by any individual lab or even by any collaboration among a few partners. The models contributed by the participating groups and generated by the pipelines are publicly available at the WeFold website providing a wealth of data that remains to be tapped. Here, we analyze the results of the 2014 and 2016 pipelines showing improvements according to the CASP assessment as well as areas that require further adjustments and research

Lactate Dehydrogenase (LDH) Response to First-Line Treatment Predicts Survival in Metastatic Breast Cancer: First Clues for A Cost-Effective and Dynamic Biomarker

Background: Elevated plasmatic lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) levels are associated with worse prognosis in various malignancies, including metastatic breast cancer (MBC). Nevertheless, no data are available on the prognostic role of LDH as a dynamic biomarker during first-line treatment in unselected MBC. Methods: We reviewed data of 392 women with MBC to evaluate the association between LDH variation after 12 weeks of first-line treatment and survival. The prognostic impact was tested by multivariate Cox regression analysis. Results: Plasmatic LDH was confirmed as an independent prognostic factor in MBC. Patients who maintained elevated LDH levels after 12 weeks of first-line treatment experienced worse progression-free survival (PFS, HR 2.88, 95% CI: 1.40-5.89, p = 0.0038) and overall survival (OS, HR 2.61, 95% CI 1.16-5.86, p = 0.02) compared to patients with stable normal LDH levels, even after adjustment for other prognostic factors. Notably, LDH low-to-high variation emerged as an unfavorable prognostic factor for PFS (HR 3.96, 95% CI 2.00-7.82, p = 0.0001). Conclusions: Plasmatic LDH and its variation during first-line treatment predict PFS and OS in MBC, providing independent prognostic information. It would be worthwhile to prospectively evaluate the association between LDH variation and therapeutic benefit in MBC, and explore how it may affect treatment strategies

Lactate Dehydrogenase (LDH) Response to First-Line Treatment Predicts Survival in Metastatic Breast Cancer: First Clues for A Cost-Effective and Dynamic Biomarker

Background: Elevated plasmatic lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) levels are associated with worse prognosis in various malignancies, including metastatic breast cancer (MBC). Nevertheless, no data are available on the prognostic role of LDH as a dynamic biomarker during first-line treatment in unselected MBC. Methods: We reviewed data of 392 women with MBC to evaluate the association between LDH variation after 12 weeks of first-line treatment and survival. The prognostic impact was tested by multivariate Cox regression analysis. Results: Plasmatic LDH was confirmed as an independent prognostic factor in MBC. Patients who maintained elevated LDH levels after 12 weeks of first-line treatment experienced worse progression-free survival (PFS, HR 2.88, 95% CI: 1.40-5.89, p = 0.0038) and overall survival (OS, HR 2.61, 95% CI 1.16-5.86, p = 0.02) compared to patients with stable normal LDH levels, even after adjustment for other prognostic factors. Notably, LDH low-to-high variation emerged as an unfavorable prognostic factor for PFS (HR 3.96, 95% CI 2.00-7.82, p = 0.0001). Conclusions: Plasmatic LDH and its variation during first-line treatment predict PFS and OS in MBC, providing independent prognostic information. It would be worthwhile to prospectively evaluate the association between LDH variation and therapeutic benefit in MBC, and explore how it may affect treatment strategies

WeFold: A coopetition for protein structure prediction

The protein structure prediction problem continues to elude scientists. Despite the introduction of many methods, only modest gains were made over the last decade for certain classes of prediction targets. To address this challenge, a social‐media based worldwide collaborative effort, named WeFold, was undertaken by 13 labs. During the collaboration, the laboratories were simultaneously competing with each other. Here, we present the first attempt at “coopetition” in scientific research applied to the protein structure prediction and refinement problems. The coopetition was possible by allowing the participating labs to contribute different components of their protein structure prediction pipelines and create new hybrid pipelines that they tested during CASP10. This manuscript describes both successes and areas needing improvement as identified throughout the first WeFold experiment and discusses the efforts that are underway to advance this initiative. A footprint of all contributions and structures are publicly accessible at http://www.wefold.org. Proteins 2014; 82:1850–1868. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc

Characteristics of women diagnosed with mpox infection compared to men: A case series from Brazil

Background: Cisgender men were mostly affected during the 2022 mpox multinational outbreak, with few cases reported in women. This study compares the characteristics of individuals diagnosed with mpox infection according to gender in Rio de Janeiro. Methods: We obtained surveillance data of mpox cases notified to Rio de Janeiro State Health Department (June 12 to December 15, 2022). We compared women (cisgender or transgender) to men (cisgender or transgender) using chi-squared, Fisher's exact, and Mood's median tests. Results: A total of 1306 mpox cases were reported; 1188 (91.0%) men (99.8% cisgender, 0.2% transgender), 108 (8.3%) women (87.0% cisgender, 13.0% transgender), and 10 (0.8%) non-binary persons. Compared to men, women were more frequently older (40+years: 34.3% vs. 25.1%; p < 0.001), reported more frequent non-sexual contact with a potential mpox case (21.4% vs. 9.8%; p = 0.004), fewer sexual partnerships (10.9 vs. 54.8%; p < 0.001), less sexual contact with a potential mpox case (18.5% vs. 43.0%; p < 0.001), fewer genital lesions (31.8% vs. 57.9%; p < 0.001), fewer systemic mpox signs/symptoms (38.0% vs. 50.1%; p = 0.015) and had a lower HIV prevalence (8.3% vs. 46.3%; p < 0.001), with all cases among transgender women. Eight women were hospitalized; no deaths occurred. The highest number of cases among women were notified in epidemiological week 34, when the number of cases among men started to decrease. Conclusions: Women diagnosed with mpox presented differences in epidemiological, behavioral, and clinical characteristics compared to men. Health services should provide a comprehensive assessment that accounts for gender diversity